Writing can be a form of protest. And I’m still digesting your answer to my question (which I appreciate). Two things: 1) I think you should have explained the nominating process, and 2) Ron Paul supporters aren’t sitting out the election, either.
1) The nomination process is fairly complicated, but the short version of it is that the nominee is chosen by state delegates at the Republican National Convention, typically held in September or August of election year. You can read about how delegates are apportioned here. Though there are some few exceptions, the vast majority of delegates are chosen according to the results of the states’ primary elections or caucuses, which occur throughout the spring of the election year.
By June at the latest (well before the convention, at any rate), it’s usually obvious who will be the nominee, because all the primaries and caucuses will be completed. At that point, you can tally up how many delegates each candidate has.
The winners of early primaries tend to get momentum which other candidates can never achieve. For this reason, the pick may be obvious as early as February or March. Candidates who do not receive a high total of delegates will usually drop out of the race far in advance of the convention. This happened last time, as McCain got 2,343 delegates, Ron Paul got 21, and Romney got 2. So you see, if Ron Paul (or any candidate) does not win more delegates than anyone else in the primaries and caucuses, he will not be the nominee. That brings me to my next point:
2) It’s true that Ron Paul has a large body of educated, enthusiastic, and often highly engaged supporters. However, at this point, at least, they still only make up 10 to 15% of GOP voters, the people who will determine the outcome of the primaries. This is not enough for a nomination. As other candidates drop out, of course, he will likely pick up some of their supporters. But if the primary contest comes down to (as it did in 2008) an establishment candidate like McCain (Romney or Perry, for instance), a minor, social issues candidate like Huckabee (Santorum, for instance), and Ron Paul, I’d contend that the GOP base will go for the good hair option.
Many Ron Paul supporters are also very new to politics and do not have the years of organizing and politicking experience — not to mention local party connections — under their belts that supporters of candidates like Romney and Perry are likely to have. This is not to be discounted. Especially in caucus states, networking within the local Republican Party is not to be discounted. Effort is admirable, but in elections, it’s achievement which is valuable.
I know this sounds extremely pessimistic on the face of it, but I’d argue that it isn’t pessimistic at all; it’s a realistic perspective, and it’s optimistic about future gains for liberty based on the influence Ron Paul currently has.
