rigidmorality asked: Hello Bonnie. Regarding the likelihood of Ron Paul gaining the GOP nomination, you have said " it’s almost certain he will not be the nominee" (2/25/10), "the Republican Party would never give him the nomination" (1/8/11) & most recently, "he isn’t too likely to get the nomination" (10/2/11) -- why is this? Thanks in advance! Trevor
Well, have you noticed the sorts of people the GOP has selected to run for president in the past few cycles? Or have you taken a look at the rest of the Republican field both this time, and in 2008 — or heck, in 2000? McCain, Guiliani, Thompson, Santorum, Brownback, Pawlenty, Romney, Huckabee.
Though we do have Gary Johnson giving a similar message to Ron Paul this time (and being completely ignored as a result), by and large Dr. Paul sticks out like a sore thumb. The message he’s offering really is different from the current mainstream of the Republican Party. I mean, there’s a reason why he’s probably the only top tier candidate who would put Dennis Kucinich in his cabinet — let alone hold a civil conversation with him.
On foreign policy (especially in a moral and legal sense), on civil liberties, and on a number of significant social issues, Ron Paul simply does not toe the party line. On fiscal and monetary policy, he toes it way too much, and I suspect other Republicans resent him for making them look much less conservative by comparison.
That’s not to say, however, that Ron Paul and his ideas aren’t making strong inroads into the GOP. Though I’d suggest that most of the changes are more in rhetoric than action at this point, and that some of it can be attributed to simple partisanship — i.e. what was ok with Bush is anathema under Obama, his message of a humble foreign policy (if only for fiscal reasons) and the importance of civil liberties (if only in regards to the TSA) and the indivisibility of freedom (if only among young Republicans who’d like to try pot) is slowly getting through. Depending on the outcome of this election, I am optimistic that it could continue to make progress, albeit probably with a different messenger. I think there’s still a long way to go, however — too far to go between now and February 2012, by which point most primaries will be decided.
The other major factor is that Ron Paul does not have huge corporate interests backing him. He’s legitimately a grassroots candidate, funding his campaign on many small donations from individual citizens. But the reason he doesn’t have backing is also a big reason I don’t think the GOP will nominate him: He’s a threat.
Have you heard the kind of cuts he’d make to the military-industrial complex, for instance? Statements like that don’t make the wealthy owners and shareholders of that complex terrifically happy. I can assure you that they, and other powerful corporate and political interests who would lose in the event of a Ron Paul victory, are not sitting this election out.
